Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve based on Micware's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. As of market creation, the IPO is scheduled to price on May 14 (ET). If no such IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before July 2026". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company's outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| $350M–$450M | 31% YES | 69% NO |
| $550M–$650M | 19% YES | 81% NO |
| No IPO before July 2026 | 12% YES | 89% NO |
| <$350M | 10% YES | 91% NO |
| $450M–$550M | 21% YES | 80% NO |
| $650M+ | 5% YES | 95% NO |
Micware is scheduled to price its initial public offering on 14 May 2026, with first-day trading to follow. This market settles on the company's market capitalisation at the official closing price on that debut trading day, calculated as outstanding shares multiplied by the final share price. Should the IPO fail to occur by 30 June 2026, the market resolves to "No IPO before July 2026". The current order book on Polymarket prices a 32% probability of the IPO proceeding as scheduled, reflecting meaningful uncertainty about timing or execution.
Tech IPO valuations at market open have historically ranged widely depending on sector momentum and comparable company multiples. Recent debuts in enterprise software and infrastructure have seen opening-day market caps between $2bn and $8bn, though this varies substantially with pre-IPO valuation signals and market conditions. The 32% probability on Polymarket suggests traders are pricing in either a material delay beyond the May window or outright postponement, rather than expressing scepticism about the IPO occurring eventually.
Key catalysts include Micware's formal SEC filings, any updates to the pricing schedule, and broader tech market conditions in spring 2026. Regulatory approval timelines, underwriter confidence, and comparable company valuations in the software or hardware space will shape both the likelihood of the IPO proceeding and its opening-day capitalisation. Traders should monitor earnings reports, competitive announcements, and macroeconomic conditions affecting technology sector appetite through May.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Micware IPO Closing Market Cap" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$342 in lifetime turnover and $630 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tech contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $342 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 14 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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