Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes," Grok 5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public. Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5 (e.g. Grok 5.0 would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to Grok 4 similar to the progression from Grok 2 to Grok 3.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| December 31, 2025 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| March 31, 2026 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| June 30, 2026 | 16% YES | 84% NO |
The question concerns whether xAI will release Grok 5 as a publicly accessible product by 31 December 2025. The resolution criteria require general public availability—open beta, rolling waitlist signups, or equivalent—rather than closed testing or private access. xAI must make an explicit public announcement naming the product Grok 5 or a recognised variant. The settlement window extends to 30 June 2026, allowing six months post-deadline for clarification of release status.
The 0% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects the compressed timeline and xAI's historical release cadence. Grok 1 launched in November 2023, with Grok 2 following in August 2024—a nine-month interval. A Grok 5 release within thirteen months from Grok 2's debut would represent an accelerated development cycle. Comparable major model releases from competitors typically space iterations twelve to eighteen months apart, though xAI has demonstrated faster iteration than some rivals. The zero probability suggests traders assess the likelihood of a major numbered release announcement and public rollout within the next twelve months as negligible.
Key catalysts include xAI's quarterly product announcements and any statements from Elon Musk regarding development timelines. Recent reporting from December 2024 indicated xAI was focused on scaling Grok 2 capabilities rather than commencing Grok 5 development. Traders should monitor xAI's official channels and industry announcements for unexpected acceleration signals, though the current order book positioning indicates minimal expectation of such developments before year-end 2025.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Grok 5 released by...?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$156K in lifetime turnover and $2K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 30% by volume for tech contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $304 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 9 months — long enough that the order book is mature and price is well-anchored to fundamentals.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 30 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: