Trade: WTT - Women's Singles: Hana Arapovic vs Miwa Harimoto
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the table tennis match between Hana Arapovic and Miwa Harimoto in a WTT event, scheduled for May 5 at 6:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Arapovic' if Hana Arapovic wins against Miwa Harimoto. This market will resolve to 'Harimoto' if Miwa Harimoto wins against Hana Arapovic. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
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Market outcomes
| WTT - Women's Singles: Hana Arapovic vs Miwa Harimoto | 50% YES | 50% NO |
Market context
Hana Arapovic and Miwa Harimoto are scheduled to compete in a Women's Singles table tennis match at a WTT event on 5 May at 6:30 AM ET. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 50-50 split, indicating substantial uncertainty among traders about the outcome. Both players operate within the professional women's table tennis circuit where ranking volatility and form fluctuations are pronounced, particularly in head-to-head matchups between players of comparable world ranking tiers.
Arapovic, a Croatian player, and Harimoto, a Japanese competitor, have limited recent direct history that would strongly anchor expectations. When comparing similar-ranked women's table tennis encounters, outcomes tend to cluster around even odds when players lack extensive head-to-head records or when recent form data is mixed. The current 50-50 pricing reflects this absence of decisive information rather than genuine equipoise in underlying skill; traders are essentially pricing in maximum uncertainty given available match history and recent tournament results.
Key variables affecting settlement include player injury status in the week preceding 5 May, last-minute WTT scheduling changes, and performance in qualifying rounds if applicable. The settlement window extends to 12 May, allowing seven days for match completion; however, any cancellation, retirement, or disqualification would trigger a 50-50 resolution. Traders should monitor WTT official announcements and player social media for withdrawal notices or fitness updates, as women's professional table tennis frequently experiences last-minute roster adjustments.
Wikipedia Context
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Resolution source
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.worldtabletennis.com/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "WTT - Women's Singles: Hana Arapovic vs Miwa Harimoto" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
What is the current probability for "WTT - Women's Singles: Hana Arapovic vs Miwa Harimoto"?
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 50%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is sourced from https://www.worldtabletennis.com/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 12 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "WTT - Women's Singles: Hana Arapovic vs Miwa Harimoto"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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