Trade: Phoenix Mercury vs. New York Liberty
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: In the upcoming WNBA game, scheduled for May 27 at 7:00PM ET: If the Phoenix Mercury win, the market will resolve to "Phoenix Mercury". If the New York Liberty win, the market will resolve to "New York Liberty". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $1
- Total Volume
- —
- 24h Volume
- —
- Open Interest
- —
Market outcomes
| Phoenix Mercury vs. New York Liberty | 50% YES | 50% NO |
Market context
The WNBA regular season fixture between Phoenix Mercury and New York Liberty on 27 May at 7:00 PM ET represents a matchup between two franchises with distinct trajectories. The Mercury, led by Diana Taurasi, have undergone roster reconstruction in recent seasons, whilst the Liberty have emerged as Eastern Conference contenders following their 2023 Finals appearance. Current Polymarket order book activity reflects a 50-50 implied probability, suggesting genuine uncertainty amongst traders regarding the outcome.
Historical context for WNBA matchups at this stage of the season typically hinges on team form and injury status rather than preseason projections. The Mercury's performance in May games has historically been variable, depending on roster availability and chemistry development. The Liberty's consistency in recent seasons—particularly their defensive intensity—provides a baseline for comparison. Similar mid-season fixtures between playoff-contending teams generally settle near even odds when both squads field competitive lineups, though the Mercury's unpredictability under pressure situations has occasionally shifted market expectations.
Traders should monitor injury reports for both teams, particularly regarding key rotation players, as late-season availability often proves decisive in WNBA outcomes. Schedule density in late May can affect performance; teams navigating back-to-back fixtures or extended road stretches frequently underperform relative to rest-advantaged opponents. Recent WNBA reporting has highlighted the Liberty's depth improvements, though Mercury's veteran experience in high-stakes situations remains a tangible factor. The settlement window closing 27 May at 23:00 UTC allows minimal post-game resolution delay, reducing administrative uncertainty.
Wikipedia Context
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Phoenix MercuryThe Phoenix Mercury are an American professional basketball team based in Phoenix, Arizona. The Mercury compete in the Women's National Basketball Association (WNBA) as a member of the Western Conference. One of eight original franchises, it was founded before the league's inaugural 1997 season began. The team plays their home games at Mortgage Matchup Cente
Resolution source
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.wnba.com/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Phoenix Mercury vs. New York Liberty" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$0 in lifetime turnover and $1 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
What is the current probability for "Phoenix Mercury vs. New York Liberty"?
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 50%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is sourced from https://www.wnba.com/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 27 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Phoenix Mercury vs. New York Liberty"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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