Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Arsenal is officially crowned the winner of at least one of the following competitions: the 2025–26 English Premier League, UEFA Champions League, Carabao Cup or FA Cup. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". If at any point it becomes impossible for Arsenal to win any of the four listed competitions (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated from winning, or eliminated from, all four competitions), the market will immediately resolve to "No".
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Will Arsenal win a trophy this season? | 92% YES | 8% NO |
Arsenal face a four-competition pathway to silverware across the 2025–26 season: the Premier League title, UEFA Champions League, Carabao Cup, and FA Cup. The 92% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects strong backing for the club to capture at least one trophy before the settlement window closes on 30 May 2026. This probability is being formed by traders pricing in Arsenal's recent competitive trajectory and squad depth relative to the difficulty of winning zero trophies across four distinct competitions over a full season.
Historical context suggests the 92% threshold is reasonable but not inevitable. Arsenal last won a major trophy in 2020 (FA Cup), and have finished second in the Premier League three times since 2021–22 without claiming the title. Comparable clubs of similar stature—Manchester City, Liverpool, Chelsea—typically win at least one trophy per season, though not universally. The probability also reflects that cup competitions offer lower barriers to entry than the league title, meaning Arsenal need only navigate knockout stages in either domestic cup rather than sustain excellence across 38 league matches or a 13-match Champions League group phase.
Key catalysts include fixture congestion through January and February, which will test squad rotation and injury resilience across all four competitions simultaneously. Arsenal's Champions League progression depends on finishing top eight in the new league phase format, whilst domestic cup draws in January will clarify their path to Wembley. Transfer activity in January could shift the probability materially if the club addresses known squad weaknesses or if injuries to key players mount.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Will Arsenal win a trophy this season?" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$400K in lifetime turnover and $43K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 10% by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is strong — order books support five-figure trades with single-cent slippage.
Last 24 hours alone saw $3K in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 4 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 92%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 30 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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