Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Tatsuro Taira" if Tatsuro Taira is officially declared the winner of the fight against Joshua Van at UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland, scheduled for May 9, 2026. It will resolve to "Joshua Van" if Joshua Van is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond May 23, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Taira to win by KO/TKO? | 11% YES | 89% NO |
| O/U 3.5 Rounds | 54% YES | 46% NO |
| Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van | 60% YES | 41% NO |
| Fight to Go the Distance? | 37% YES | 63% NO |
| Fight won by KO/TKO? | 39% YES | 61% NO |
| Van to win by KO/TKO? | 20% YES | 81% NO |
| Fight won by submission? | 29% YES | 71% NO |
| O/U 0.5 Rounds | 88% YES | 12% NO |
Tatsuro Taira faces Joshua Van in a flyweight bout on the main card of UFC 328, scheduled for 9 May 2026 in Las Vegas. The current order book on Polymarket prices Taira's victory at 12 per cent implied probability, reflecting substantial market confidence in Van. This pricing emerges from real-time trading activity across the platform's liquidity pools, where traders continuously adjust positions based on available information and their assessments of both fighters' capabilities.
Taira enters as a rising prospect within the UFC's flyweight division, whilst Van represents an established competitor with significant octagon experience. Historical patterns in flyweight matchups suggest that experience and fight IQ often prove decisive at this weight class, where marginal advantages in positioning and cardio management compound over three rounds. The 12 per cent probability assigned to Taira reflects the market's weighting towards Van's proven track record, though such probabilities can shift materially if new information surfaces regarding either fighter's conditioning, injury status, or recent training camp developments.
Traders should monitor official UFC announcements regarding fighter health and any potential schedule adjustments through the settlement window closing 10 May 2026. Weigh-in results on 8 May will provide final confirmation of both competitors' physical condition. The market's resolution hinges on official UFC scorecards and judging decisions; any declaration of a draw, technical draw, or no contest triggers a 50-50 resolution regardless of perceived fight outcome.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.ufc.com/events. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card)" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$140K in lifetime turnover and $356K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 30% by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $70K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.ufc.com/events. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 10 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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