Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Roman Kopylov" if Roman Kopylov is officially declared the winner of the fight against Marco Tulio at UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland, scheduled for May 9, 2026. It will resolve to "Marco Tulio" if Marco Tulio is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond May 23, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Roman Kopylov vs. Marco Tulio | 36% YES | 65% NO |
| Fight to Go the Distance? | 41% YES | 59% NO |
| Fight won by KO/TKO? | 48% YES | 53% NO |
| Kopylov to win by KO/TKO? | 18% YES | 83% NO |
| Tulio to win by KO/TKO? | 35% YES | 66% NO |
| Fight won by submission? | 18% YES | 83% NO |
| O/U 0.5 Rounds | 83% YES | 18% NO |
| O/U 1.5 Rounds | 61% YES | 40% NO |
Roman Kopylov faces Marco Tulio in a middleweight bout on the early preliminary card of UFC 328, headlined by Chimaev versus Strickland on 9 May 2026. The fight is scheduled for three rounds at 185 pounds. Current order book pricing on Polymarket implies a 36% probability of Kopylov victory, reflecting market participants' assessment that Tulio enters as the favoured outcome at 64%.
Kopylov, a Russian middleweight with a record of 13 wins and 5 losses, has competed consistently in the UFC since 2021 but remains outside the division's top tier. Tulio, a Brazilian fighter, brings comparable experience at middleweight. Early preliminary card positioning typically features developing fighters or those returning from layoffs. Historical data on similar matchups—fighters with comparable records and rankings placed on preliminary cards—suggests the 36/64 split reflects modest confidence in either competitor, with the market pricing reflecting uncertainty rather than a clear technical advantage for either side.
Traders should monitor fighter health status and any late withdrawals, as preliminary card changes occur frequently in the lead-up to events. Injury announcements or replacement fighters would reset probability assessments substantially. The settlement window closes on 10 May 2026, shortly after the scheduled fight date, allowing minimal time for scoring disputes or technical review. Any cancellation or postponement beyond 23 May triggers a 50-50 resolution, creating tail risk that current pricing may not fully account for.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.ufc.com/events. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "UFC 328: Roman Kopylov vs. Marco Tulio (Middleweight, Early Prelims)" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$200K in lifetime turnover and $81K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 10% by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $175K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.ufc.com/events. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 10 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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