Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Allan Nascimento" if Allan Nascimento is officially declared the winner of the fight against Mitch Raposo at UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi, scheduled for June 20, 2026. It will resolve to "Mitch Raposo" if Mitch Raposo is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond July 4, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo | 63% YES | 37% NO |
| Fight to Go the Distance? | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Fight won by KO/TKO? | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Nascimento to win by KO/TKO? | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Raposo to win by KO/TKO? | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Fight won by submission? | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| O/U 0.5 Rounds | 51% YES | 50% NO |
| O/U 1.5 Rounds | 51% YES | 50% NO |
Allan Nascimento and Mitch Raposo are scheduled to compete in a flyweight preliminary bout at UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi on 20 June 2026. The market currently reflects 63% implied probability for Nascimento's victory, formed across Polymarket's order book as traders price their assessments of the matchup. Settlement occurs shortly after the event concludes, with a 50-50 resolution if the bout ends in a draw, technical draw, no contest, or cancellation beyond 4 July.
Nascimento holds a professional record indicating competitive experience at flyweight, whilst Raposo represents another developing fighter at the division. Preliminary bouts at UFC Fight Night events historically feature fighters building records or returning from layoffs, creating wider outcome variance than main card fights. The 63% probability suggests the market views Nascimento as a modest favourite, though the spread indicates meaningful uncertainty about fight execution and judging outcomes.
Traders should monitor official UFC announcements regarding fighter health, weight cuts, or late withdrawals in the weeks preceding the event. Preliminary fight cancellations occur occasionally due to injury or weight-miss complications. The event's main card headliners—Kape vs. Horiguchi—may also influence preliminary scheduling or fighter momentum narratives. Any roster changes or fighter statements regarding preparation will affect the order book's pricing as settlement approaches.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.ufc.com/events. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims)" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $623 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.ufc.com/events. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 21 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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