Resolution criteria on PolyGram: More markets for the Süper Lig game, scheduled for May 9 at 1:00 PM ET.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| O/U 5.5 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Alanyaspor (-1.5) | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Kayserispor (-1.5) | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Alanyaspor (-2.5) | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Kayserispor (-2.5) | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| O/U 0.5 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| O/U 2.5 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
Alanyaspor will face Kayserispor in a Süper Lig fixture on 9 May 2026 at 1:00 PM ET, with settlement contingent on additional market offerings being created for this match. The current 0% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects either minimal liquidity in this specific market cluster or genuine scarcity of traders positioning ahead of the settlement window closure on 9 May at 5:00 PM UTC.
Turkish Süper Lig matches typically generate modest secondary-market activity compared to major European leagues, particularly for mid-table fixtures. Historical precedent suggests that niche market clusters—those dependent on ancillary offerings rather than primary match outcomes—often see delayed price discovery and thin order books until closer to settlement. The absence of any YES position at present may indicate traders are awaiting clearer information on which additional markets will actually be listed before committing capital.
Key catalysts include confirmation of the fixture's scheduling (weather, administrative delays), team news on injuries or suspensions in the fortnight preceding the match, and crucially, clarification from the market operator on what constitutes a qualifying "more market" for settlement purposes. Traders should monitor Süper Lig official announcements and Alanyaspor and Kayserispor's squad updates. The settlement window's tight closure—occurring on match day itself—compresses the typical information-gathering period and may suppress participation until the final hours.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://tff.org/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Alanyaspor vs. Kayserispor - More Markets" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$25K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://tff.org/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 9 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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