Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This event is for the upcoming Copa Sudamericana game, scheduled for Wednesday, May 6, 2026 between Botafogo FR and Racing Club.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Botafogo FR | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Draw (Botafogo FR vs. Racing Club) | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Racing Club | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Botafogo FR will face Racing Club in a Copa Sudamericana fixture on Wednesday, 6 May 2026. The match represents a knockout-stage encounter in South America's secondary continental club competition, with the fixture scheduled to commence in the evening across Rio de Janeiro or Buenos Aires depending on venue allocation. Current order book activity on Polymarket reflects a 100% implied probability, indicating traders are pricing this event as certain to occur as scheduled.
Copa Sudamericana matches have historically proceeded without material disruption, though fixture postponements remain possible given weather conditions in May across Argentina and Brazil, administrative disputes between confederations, or unforeseen security concerns. Recent editions of the competition have maintained fixture integrity at rates exceeding 98%, establishing a baseline for assessing whether the current probability reflects genuine certainty or illiquidity in the order book. The settlement window closes on 7 May at 00:30 UTC, allowing minimal buffer beyond typical match completion times.
Traders should monitor official CONMEBOL announcements regarding venue confirmation and any squad availability issues affecting either club in the weeks preceding the fixture. Botafogo's domestic league commitments and Racing Club's fixture schedule in Argentina's top division may influence team preparation and injury status. Liquidity conditions on the order book will likely remain thin until closer to the event date, potentially explaining the extreme probability reading. Any fixture postponement announcement would trigger immediate settlement mechanics under the market's stated rules.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.conmebol.com/sudamericana/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Botafogo FR vs. Racing Club" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$30K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for around a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.conmebol.com/sudamericana/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 7 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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