Resolution criteria on PolyGram: In the upcoming Scottish Premiership game between Hibernian FC and Motherwell FC, scheduled for May 16, 2026 at 7:30 AM ET: This event contains halftime result markets for home, draw, and away outcomes within the first 45 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Hibernian FC | 50% YES | 51% NO |
| Draw | 50% YES | 51% NO |
| Motherwell FC | 50% YES | 51% NO |
Hibernian FC will host Motherwell FC in a Scottish Premiership fixture on 16 May 2026, with settlement determined by the halftime scoreline after 45 minutes plus stoppage time. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 49% implied probability for a Hibernian halftime win, suggesting near-parity with alternative outcomes (Motherwell victory or a draw at halftime). This probability has formed through live trading activity and represents the marginal trader's assessment given available information as of today.
Hibernian's recent domestic form and home advantage typically favour early dominance, though Scottish Premiership halftime markets historically show greater volatility than full-match outcomes due to compressed sample sizes and tactical adjustments. Motherwell's defensive setup and counter-attacking capability have occasionally produced resilient first-half performances against stronger sides. Comparable fixtures between these clubs over the past two seasons provide limited predictive power given squad rotation and managerial changes that may have occurred by May 2026.
Traders should monitor team news releases in the 48 hours preceding kickoff, particularly regarding injuries to key attacking or defensive personnel. Weather conditions at Easter Road and any late tactical announcements from either manager could shift the probability. The settlement window closes at 11:30 GMT on match day, allowing approximately four hours post-halftime for confirmation and dispute resolution. Current pricing reflects genuine uncertainty; significant shifts would likely require concrete squad availability changes or explicit tactical statements from either club.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://spfl.co.uk/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Hibernian FC vs. Motherwell FC - Halftime Result" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $389 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://spfl.co.uk/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 16 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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