Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This event is for the upcoming Scottish Premiership game, scheduled for Saturday, May 16, 2026 between Hibernian FC and Motherwell FC.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Hibernian FC | 36% YES | 64% NO |
| Draw (Hibernian FC vs. Motherwell FC) | 27% YES | 73% NO |
| Motherwell FC | 37% YES | 63% NO |
Hibernian and Motherwell will meet in a Scottish Premiership fixture on Saturday, 16 May 2026. The current order book on Polymarket prices a Hibernian victory at 36 per cent implied probability, reflecting modest backing for the away side relative to the home fixture context.
Hibernian finished the 2024–25 season in mid-table, whilst Motherwell has historically occupied similar league positions, though both clubs experience considerable variance in form across campaigns. The 36 per cent probability for Hibernian suggests the market is pricing them as slight underdogs despite playing at Easter Road. This aligns with typical Scottish Premiership dynamics where home advantage carries material weight; comparable mid-table away fixtures in the league have historically settled around 30–40 per cent for the visiting team when form is broadly matched. The depth of Polymarket's order book will continue to refine this probability as May approaches and team news crystallises.
Traders should monitor squad availability in the weeks before the fixture, particularly injury updates from both clubs' official channels and Scottish Premiership injury reports. Late-season form divergence—whether either side enters a winning or losing streak—will likely shift the probability materially. Fixture congestion and European competition involvement, should either club qualify for continental play, may affect squad rotation decisions. Recent managerial statements regarding team selection and tactical approach, typically released mid-week before fixtures, will provide additional signal for probability adjustment.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://spfl.co.uk/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Hibernian FC vs. Motherwell FC" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $4K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://spfl.co.uk/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 16 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: