Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This event is for the upcoming Top 14 match between Bayonne and Union Bordeaux Begles, scheduled for May 9 2026.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Bayonne | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Draw | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Union Bordeaux Begles | 100% YES | 0% NO |
Bayonne will face Union Bordeaux Bègles in a Top 14 rugby fixture on 9 May 2026, with settlement determined by the match outcome on that date. The current order book on Polymarket shows zero probability assigned to a YES resolution, reflecting either minimal trading activity or a consensus view that the event conditions are unlikely to materialise as specified.
Top 14 matches between these Aquitaine rivals carry historical context shaped by recent competitive standing. Bayonne has operated in the second tier (Pro D2) in recent seasons, whilst Union Bordeaux Bègles competes consistently in the Top 14 elite division. This structural difference typically influences fixture scheduling and likelihood of direct matchups. The 0% implied probability may reflect uncertainty about whether these teams will meet in the scheduled fixture, or whether the match will proceed as planned given fixture congestion in late May, which often involves playoff and semi-final commitments in the Top 14 calendar.
Traders should monitor official Top 14 fixture confirmations and any announcements regarding playoff structures for the 2025–26 season. Injury announcements and squad availability in the weeks preceding May will affect match dynamics, though these would not alter settlement conditions. Fixture postponements or cancellations—rare but possible due to weather or administrative factors—would be critical catalysts. The settlement window closes 9 May at 15:00 UTC, allowing only same-day resolution based on final match outcome.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.lnr.fr/top-14. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Top 14: Bayonne vs Union Bordeaux Begles" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$5K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.lnr.fr/top-14. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 16 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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