Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This event is for the upcoming Premiership Rugby match between Northampton Saints and Bristol Bears, scheduled for May 15 2026.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Northampton Saints | 45% YES | 56% NO |
| Draw | 41% YES | 59% NO |
| Bristol Bears | 18% YES | 83% NO |
Northampton Saints will face Bristol Bears in a Premiership Rugby fixture on 15 May 2026, with settlement determined by the match result. The current order book on Polymarket prices a Saints victory at 41%, implying Bristol as favourites at the implied odds. This probability reflects real-time trading activity across the platform's liquidity pools, where traders are pricing in available team form, injury status, and historical head-to-head records ahead of the settlement window closing on 22 May.
Northampton and Bristol have maintained competitive records in recent Premiership seasons, with neither club establishing decisive dominance in their matchups. Saints have shown inconsistent form across campaigns, whilst Bristol have periodically challenged for top-four finishes. The 41% probability for a Saints win suggests traders view Bristol as slight favourites, though the spread remains narrow enough to indicate genuine uncertainty about the outcome. Historical fixture data between these sides typically produces close contests, with home advantage and squad depth playing material roles in determining results.
Key variables for traders to monitor include confirmed team selections and injury announcements in the weeks preceding the match, as key player availability often shifts implied probabilities materially. Fixture congestion and European competition schedules in the lead-up to mid-May will influence squad rotation decisions. Recent Premiership standings and form trajectories through April and early May will provide the most current information for reassessing the probability before settlement.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.premiershiprugby.com/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Premiership Rugby: Northampton Saints vs Bristol Bears" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$766 in lifetime turnover and $2K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $196 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.premiershiprugby.com/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 22 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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