Sports

Trade: Vitória SC vs. Casa Pia AC - Exact Score

Opened · Settles

Resolution criteria on PolyGram: In the upcoming Primeira Liga game between Vitória SC and Casa Pia AC, scheduled for May 11, 2026 at 3:15 PM ET: This market will resolve based on the final score of the Vitória SC vs. Casa Pia AC match originally scheduled for May 11, 2026 at 3:15 PM ET, considering only the result at the end of 90 minutes of regulation plus stoppage time; extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. If the actual score is not one of the explicitly listed outcomes, the market resolves to "Any Other Score." If the match is postponed, the market will remain open until it is completed; if it is canceled with no make-up game, the market resolves to "0-0." The primary resolution source for this market will…

PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.

Liquidity
$310
Total Volume
—
24h Volume
—
Open Interest
—
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Market outcomes

Exact Score: 0-3 14% YES87% NO
Exact Score: 1-2 14% YES86% NO
Exact Score: 3-0 2% YES98% NO
Exact Score: 1-3 14% YES87% NO
Exact Score: 2-2 33% YES67% NO
Exact Score: 3-1 8% YES92% NO
Exact Score: 2-3 18% YES82% NO
Exact Score: 3-2 50% YES50% NO

Market context

Vitória SC will face Casa Pia AC in a Primeira Liga fixture on 11 May 2026, with settlement contingent on the exact final score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. The 6% implied probability reflects the combined likelihood of a specific scoreline occurring, with the current order book pricing this outcome at roughly 1 in 17 odds. Exact-score markets typically concentrate probability mass on the most common results—draws and narrow home victories—leaving less frequent scorelines thinly priced.

Historically, exact-score markets in Portuguese top-flight football show that outcomes beyond 2–1 or 1–1 rarely exceed single-digit implied probabilities unless one team is heavily favoured. Vitória SC, based in Guarda, has competed consistently in the Primeira Liga, whilst Casa Pia AC, a Lisbon-based club, has experienced volatility in recent seasons. The baseline expectation for any single scoreline in a competitive fixture typically ranges from 3–8%, depending on team quality differential and home-field advantage.

Traders should monitor team news in the weeks preceding the match, including injury reports and managerial changes that could shift expected goal output. Vitória's home record and Casa Pia's away performance record will influence whether the market reprices toward higher or lower-scoring outcomes. Fixture congestion late in the season may also affect squad rotation and intensity. The settlement window closes at 19:15 UTC on match day, allowing minimal time for post-match verification disputes.

Wikipedia Context

  • Vitória S.C.
    Vitória S.C.

    Vitória Sport Clube, commonly known as Vitória de Guimarães or just Vitória, is a Portuguese professional football club based in Guimarães that competes in the Primeira Liga, the top flight of Portuguese football, at the Estádio D. Afonso Henriques. The club also stands out on the national and international scene in other sports such as volleyball, basketbal

  • Vitória school attack
    Vitória school attack

    On 19 August 2022, a school attack took place at the Municipal School of Fundamental Teaching Éber Louzada Zippinotti, located in Vitória, Espírito Santo, Brazil. In the event, 18-year-old former student Henrique Lira Trad threatened and attacked teachers, coordinators and students with a variety of weapons, including crossbows, knives and Molotov cocktails

  • Vitória S.C. (cycling team)

    Vitória–ASC was a Portuguese cycling team in the UCI Continental category that was formed from the association between União Ciclista de Vila do Conde from Vila do Conde and Vitória Sport Clube from Guimarães. The professional team was dissolved in 2007 due to a lack of support and investment in the team, however, continuing with basic training.

  • Vitória, Espírito Santo
    Vitória, Espírito Santo

    Vitória is the capital of the state of Espírito Santo, Brazil. It is located on a small island within a bay where a number of rivers meet the sea. It was founded in 1551. The city proper is 93 square kilometres and has a population of 322,869 (2022), whilst the Greater Vitória metropolitan area has a population of more than 1,880,828, the 14th largest in Bra

Resolution source

This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.ligaportugal.pt/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.

How to trade this market step by step

The mechanics for trading "Vitória SC vs. Casa Pia AC - Exact Score" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.

  1. Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
  2. Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
  3. Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
  4. Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
  5. Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
  6. Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.

How active is this market?

$0 in lifetime turnover and $310 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.

The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.

Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.

Key terms

YES / NO share
A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
CLOB
Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
Liquidity
USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
UMA optimistic oracle
The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
Slippage
The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
Conditional token
ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.

See the full prediction-market glossary →

Frequently asked questions

How does this market resolve?

Resolution is sourced from https://www.ligaportugal.pt/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.

When does this market close?

This prediction market is scheduled to close on 11 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.

How can I trade on "Vitória SC vs. Casa Pia AC - Exact Score"?

To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.

What happens when the market resolves?

When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.

Risk and regulatory note

Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.

Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.

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