Resolution criteria on PolyGram: In the upcoming Peru Liga 1 game between AD Tarma and Cusco FC, scheduled for May 30, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET: This event contains halftime result markets for home, draw, and away outcomes within the first 45 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| AD Tarma | 50% YES | 51% NO |
| Draw | 50% YES | 51% NO |
| Cusco FC | 50% YES | 51% NO |
AD Tarma will host Cusco FC in Peru's Liga 1 on 30 May 2026, with settlement determined by the halftime scoreline after 45 minutes plus stoppage time. The current orderbook on Polymarket reflects a 50% implied probability for the home outcome, suggesting even odds between Tarma victory, a draw, and an away win at the interval.
Halftime markets in Peruvian football typically reflect the structural advantages of home sides, though Liga 1 matches have shown considerable volatility in opening periods. Historical data from recent seasons indicates that home teams convert halftime leads into full-time victories roughly 65–70% of the time, yet the first-half scoreline itself depends heavily on early tactical setup and team cohesion. Tarma's home record and Cusco's away performance in the preceding months will inform whether the current 50% probability undervalues or overvalues the home side's chances of being ahead at the whistle.
Traders should monitor team news and squad availability in the days before kickoff, particularly injury updates that might affect midfield control or defensive stability. Cusco's recent form on the road and Tarma's consistency at their stadium will be key indicators; any late withdrawals or tactical shifts announced closer to the 12:00 PM ET start could shift the orderbook. Weather conditions in the Andes region, where Tarma plays, can also influence early-game tempo and passing accuracy, though such factors are typically priced in once confirmed.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://liga1.pe/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "AD Tarma vs. Cusco FC - Halftime Result" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $259 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://liga1.pe/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 30 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: