Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This event is for the upcoming NWSL game, scheduled for Sunday, May 3, 2026 between San Diego Wave FC and Bay FC.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| San Diego Wave FC | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Draw (San Diego Wave FC vs. Bay FC) | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Bay FC | 100% YES | 0% NO |
San Diego Wave FC will face Bay FC in an NWSL regular-season match on Sunday, 3 May 2026. The current order book on Polymarket shows a 0% implied probability for a Wave victory, reflecting either extreme confidence in a Bay FC win or draw, or minimal liquidity at the YES end of the book. Settlement occurs at 23:00 UTC on the match date.
The NWSL has seen considerable competitive flux since its 2023 expansion. Wave FC finished 2024 in mid-table, whilst Bay FC, entering its second season, showed inconsistency typical of expansion-phase clubs. Historical precedent suggests that 0% probabilities in football markets often reflect thin order books rather than genuine certainty; even heavily favoured teams rarely trade below 5–10% in liquid markets. The absence of any YES position here warrants scrutiny of whether this reflects genuine market conviction or simply a lack of backing for Wave.
Key catalysts before settlement include team news on injuries and roster changes through May, final regular-season fixture scheduling confirmations, and any recent form data from March–April 2026 matches. Traders should monitor official NWSL announcements regarding squad availability and venue confirmations. The settlement window closes at match end, making late-breaking team news—particularly starting lineups released on match day—material for position adjustments. Current pricing suggests the market is pricing either a Bay FC win or a draw as near-certain, but the absence of liquidity on the YES side means early backing of Wave could shift the probability substantially if new information emerges.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.nwslsoccer.com/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "San Diego Wave FC vs. Bay FC" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$218 in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for around a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.nwslsoccer.com/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 3 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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