Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This event is for the upcoming MLS game, scheduled for Saturday, May 9, 2026 between Toronto FC and Inter Miami CF.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Toronto FC | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Inter Miami CF | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Draw (Toronto FC vs. Inter Miami CF) | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Toronto FC will host Inter Miami CF in a Major League Soccer fixture on Saturday, 9 May 2026. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 6% implied probability for a Toronto victory, pricing the home side as significant underdogs. This probability has formed through real-time trading activity and represents the collective assessment of market participants weighing Toronto's chances against Miami's form and squad composition heading into late spring.
Inter Miami CF has established itself as a competitive force in MLS, particularly following the arrival of high-profile signings in recent seasons. Toronto FC, meanwhile, has experienced inconsistent performance across recent campaigns, oscillating between playoff contention and rebuilding phases. Historical matchups between these clubs provide limited predictive power given roster turnover, but Toronto's home record at BMO Field typically offers modest advantage. The 6% probability suggests traders are pricing in Miami as clear favourites, likely reflecting their recent league standing and squad depth relative to Toronto's current trajectory.
Traders monitoring this market should track team news through early May, including injury reports and any late roster moves. MLS scheduling often produces fixture congestion in spring months, which can affect squad rotation and player availability. Weather conditions at BMO Field on match day—potentially cool and windy in early May—may influence play style. Recent form in the weeks preceding the fixture will be material; a string of wins or losses for either side could shift the probability meaningfully from current levels before settlement on 9 May at 17:00 UTC.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.mlssoccer.com/schedule/scores. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Toronto FC vs. Inter Miami CF" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$187K in lifetime turnover and $275K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 30% by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $177K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.mlssoccer.com/schedule/scores. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 9 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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