Trade: San Diego FC vs. Austin FC - More Markets
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: More markets for the MLS game, scheduled for May 13 at 9:30 PM ET.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $80K
- Total Volume
- $608
- 24h Volume
- $608
- Open Interest
- $606
Market outcomes
| San Diego FC (-1.5) | 34% YES | 66% NO |
| Austin FC (-1.5) | 9% YES | 92% NO |
| San Diego FC (-2.5) | 18% YES | 83% NO |
| Austin FC (-2.5) | 4% YES | 96% NO |
| O/U 1.5 | 87% YES | 14% NO |
| O/U 2.5 | 66% YES | 34% NO |
| O/U 3.5 | 42% YES | 58% NO |
| O/U 4.5 | 23% YES | 77% NO |
Market context
San Diego FC will host Austin FC in an MLS regular season fixture on 13 May at 9:30 PM ET. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 34% implied probability for the "more markets" outcome, suggesting traders are pricing in moderate uncertainty around whether additional betting markets will be offered for this fixture. This probability has formed through cumulative order flow across the platform's liquidity pools.
Historical precedent shows that MLS fixtures between mid-table teams typically attract supplementary markets when one or both sides carry playoff relevance or when regional interest spikes. San Diego FC, in their inaugural 2024 season, and Austin FC, an established franchise, represent a matchup unlikely to command the same ancillary market depth as fixtures involving traditional powerhouses like Los Angeles FC or Seattle Sounders. The 34% probability aligns with baseline expectations for secondary-tier MLS matchups, where additional markets materialise sporadically rather than systematically.
Traders should monitor team injury reports and roster announcements through early May, as significant absences could alter perceived match competitiveness and thus market appetite. MLS scheduling changes, whilst rare, occasionally trigger market adjustments. Additionally, watch for any Polymarket platform announcements regarding expanded sports coverage, which could shift the likelihood of supplementary markets appearing. Settlement occurs 13 May at 01:30 UTC, providing a narrow window for information flow between kick-off and resolution.
Wikipedia Context
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San DiegoSan Diego is a city on the Pacific coast of Southern California, adjacent to the Mexico–United States border. It is the eighth-most populous city in the U.S. and second-most populous city in California with a population of over 1.4 million, while the San Diego metropolitan area with over 3.3 million residents is the 18th-largest metropolitan area in the coun
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San Diego County, CaliforniaSan Diego County, officially the County of San Diego, is located in the southwest corner of the U.S. state of California, north to its border with Mexico. As of the 2020 census, the population was 3,298,634; it is the second-most populous county in California and the fifth-most populous in the United States. Its county seat is San Diego, the second-most popu
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San Diego PadresThe San Diego Padres are an American professional baseball team based in San Diego. The Padres compete in Major League Baseball (MLB) as a member club of the National League (NL) West Division. The team plays its home games at Petco Park in downtown San Diego. Founded in 1969 as an expansion franchise, the Padres adopted their name from the Pacific Coast Lea
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San Diego State UniversitySan Diego State University (SDSU) is a public research university in San Diego, California, United States. Founded in 1897, it is the third-oldest university and southernmost in the 23-member California State University (CSU) system. SDSU is the oldest higher education institution in San Diego; its academic roots were established as a normal school in Univer
Resolution source
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.mlssoccer.com/schedule/scores. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "San Diego FC vs. Austin FC - More Markets" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$608 in lifetime turnover and $80K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $608 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is sourced from https://www.mlssoccer.com/schedule/scores. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 14 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "San Diego FC vs. Austin FC - More Markets"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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