Resolution criteria on PolyGram: In the upcoming MLB game between the Tampa Bay Rays and Miami Marlins, scheduled for June 5 at 7:10PM ET: This market will resolve to "Tampa Bay Rays" if the Tampa Bay Rays win the game. This market will resolve to "Miami Marlins" if the Miami Marlins win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| NRFI | 49% YES | 51% NO |
The Tampa Bay Rays face the Miami Marlins in an MLB regular-season matchup on 5 June at 19:10 ET. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 50-50 split, indicating traders view this as a genuine toss-up with neither side commanding a clear edge. This even pricing typically emerges when underlying team strength, recent form, and available pitching information are balanced or uncertain.
The Rays and Marlins occupy different competitive tiers historically, though recent seasons have narrowed the gap. Tampa Bay has maintained consistent playoff contention despite a modest payroll, whilst Miami has cycled through rebuilding phases. Head-to-head records and home-field advantage at Tropicana Field favour the Rays marginally in most seasons, yet the 50-50 probability suggests current market participants are either discounting historical patterns or weighting recent performance shifts equally. Comparable divisional matchups between mismatched teams often settle near even odds when one side lacks recent momentum or when injury reports remain fluid.
Traders should monitor starting pitcher assignments and any late roster moves announced before first pitch. Bullpen availability, particularly for Tampa Bay, can shift probabilities if key relievers are unavailable. Weather conditions at Tropicana Field—an indoor venue—eliminate that variable, but any pre-game injury announcements could trigger order book movement. Recent team performance through early June and batting-order adjustments will likely influence the final probability distribution as settlement approaches on 12 June.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.mlb.com/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $20K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.mlb.com/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 12 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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