Resolution criteria on PolyGram: In the upcoming MLB game between the San Francisco Giants and Arizona Diamondbacks, scheduled for May 18 at 9:40PM ET: This market will resolve to "San Francisco Giants" if the San Francisco Giants win the game. This market will resolve to "Arizona Diamondbacks" if the Arizona Diamondbacks win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks | 62% YES | 38% NO |
| NRFI | 46% YES | 54% NO |
The San Francisco Giants face the Arizona Diamondbacks on 18 May at 9:40PM ET in an NL West matchup. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 62% implied probability for a Giants victory, pricing them as the favoured side. This probability emerges from real-time trading activity across the market's liquidity pools, with the spread between backing and laying positions establishing the consensus price.
Historical matchups between these division rivals provide context for evaluating the current odds. The Giants and Diamondbacks have competed closely in recent seasons, with neither team establishing consistent dominance. Last season's head-to-head record and run differential offer baseline expectations, though roster composition changes and mid-season form shifts can alter competitive balance significantly. The 62% probability suggests the market views the Giants as moderately favoured but acknowledges meaningful uncertainty—a gap wide enough to reflect genuine competitive uncertainty rather than a lopsided fixture.
Traders should monitor starting pitcher assignments, which typically drive meaningful probability shifts in baseball markets. Injury reports for key position players, particularly in the Giants' batting order and Diamondbacks' defensive alignment, can trigger repricing. Recent team performance trends, including run-scoring patterns and bullpen effectiveness over the preceding week, often correlate with late-market movement. Weather conditions at the venue and any roster roster adjustments announced closer to game time may also influence the order book's liquidity and pricing dynamics before settlement on 26 May.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.mlb.com/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $228 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.mlb.com/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 26 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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