Resolution criteria on PolyGram: In the upcoming MLB game between the Athletics and Baltimore Orioles, scheduled for May 9 at 4:05PM ET: This market will resolve to "Athletics" if the Athletics win the game. This market will resolve to "Baltimore Orioles" if the Baltimore Orioles win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Athletics vs. Baltimore Orioles | 52% YES | 49% NO |
| NRFI | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| O/U 8.5 | — | |
| Spread -1.5 | 39% YES | 61% NO |
| Spread -1.5 | 31% YES | 70% NO |
| O/U 9.5 | 48% YES | 52% NO |
| O/U 10.5 | — | |
The Oakland Athletics face the Baltimore Orioles in an MLB regular season matchup scheduled for 9 May at 4:05PM ET. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a near-even split, with the implied probability standing at 49% for an Athletics victory, suggesting marginal market confidence in Baltimore. This equilibrium pricing indicates traders are weighing both teams as competitive in this fixture, with only a slight lean towards the Orioles.
Historical matchup data and recent form provide context for interpreting the current probability. The Orioles have generally held stronger regular season records than Oakland in recent years, though the Athletics remain capable competitors in individual games. Head-to-head records between these franchises show competitive balance, with neither team demonstrating decisive dominance. Current 2026 season standings and recent performance streaks will influence how traders adjust positions ahead of the settlement window closing on 16 May.
Key catalysts affecting market pricing include confirmed starting pitcher assignments, which typically shift implied probabilities by 2–4 percentage points depending on recent ERA and matchup history. Injury reports released in the 24 hours before game time—particularly regarding offensive linchpins or bullpen depth—often trigger order book rebalancing. Weather conditions at the venue and any roster roster moves announced by either franchise could shift the current equilibrium. Traders should monitor official MLB communications and team announcements through 9 May for material developments affecting competitive positioning.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.mlb.com/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Athletics vs. Baltimore Orioles" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$681K in lifetime turnover and $258K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 2% by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $681K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.mlb.com/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 16 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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