Resolution criteria on PolyGram: In the upcoming MLB game between the Minnesota Twins and Cleveland Guardians, scheduled for May 9 at 6:10PM ET: This market will resolve to "Minnesota Twins" if the Minnesota Twins win the game. This market will resolve to "Cleveland Guardians" if the Cleveland Guardians win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardians | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| NRFI | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| O/U 6.5 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Spread -1.5 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Spread -1.5 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| O/U 7.5 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
The Minnesota Twins face the Cleveland Guardians on 9 May at 6:10 PM ET in an AL Central divisional matchup. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 46% implied probability for a Twins victory, suggesting the market views Cleveland as slight favourites. This probability has been formed through active trading across the book's depth, with the spread between bid and ask prices indicating moderate liquidity in the contract.
Historical matchups between these clubs provide context for evaluating the current odds. The Twins and Guardians have developed a competitive rivalry in recent seasons, with results often dependent on starting pitcher quality and bullpen availability rather than home-field advantage alone. Cleveland's pitching depth has been a structural advantage in head-to-head play, whilst Minnesota's offensive consistency has occasionally offset that edge. The 46% probability suggests traders are pricing in Cleveland's recent form and roster construction as marginal advantages.
Key catalysts for movement include confirmation of starting pitchers, which typically arrives 24–48 hours before game time, and any late roster adjustments due to injury. Weather conditions at the venue may also influence trading, particularly wind direction affecting fly ball carry. Recent form entering the game—win-loss streaks, bullpen usage patterns, and offensive trends—will likely drive repricing as the 9 May fixture approaches. Traders should monitor MLB injury reports and team announcements through the settlement window closing on 16 May.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.mlb.com/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardians" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$497K in lifetime turnover and $1.0M of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 2% by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $497K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.mlb.com/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 16 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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