Trade: Milwaukee Brewers vs. Minnesota Twins
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: In the upcoming MLB game between the Milwaukee Brewers and Minnesota Twins, scheduled for May 15 at 8:10PM ET: This market will resolve to "Milwaukee Brewers" if the Milwaukee Brewers win the game. This market will resolve to "Minnesota Twins" if the Minnesota Twins win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $19K
- Total Volume
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- 24h Volume
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- Open Interest
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Market outcomes
| Milwaukee Brewers vs. Minnesota Twins | 46% YES | 55% NO |
| NRFI | 47% YES | 53% NO |
Market context
The Milwaukee Brewers face the Minnesota Twins on 15 May at 8:10 PM ET in a regular-season MLB matchup. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 53% implied probability for a Brewers victory, suggesting modest confidence in the home team's chances. This probability is formed through active trading on the platform's order book, where the spread between backing and laying positions determines the marginal price.
Historically, the Brewers have held a slight edge in recent head-to-head records against the Twins, though both franchises remain competitive mid-tier teams in their respective divisions. The 53% probability sits close to the baseline expectation for a home team advantage in MLB, typically worth 2–3 percentage points. This suggests the market is pricing in minimal additional factors beyond venue advantage, indicating relatively balanced roster strength between the two clubs as of the settlement window opening.
Traders should monitor pitching assignments in the days leading to the fixture, as starter quality materially shifts win probabilities in baseball. Weather conditions at the venue—temperature, wind direction, and precipitation risk—affect ball carry and game dynamics. Any late roster moves, injuries to key position players, or bullpen availability changes could shift the order book significantly. Recent form matters; a team entering the fixture on a winning streak or facing fatigue from a compressed schedule would typically move the probability accordingly.
Wikipedia Context
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Milwaukee BrewersThe Milwaukee Brewers are an American professional baseball team based in Milwaukee. The Brewers compete in Major League Baseball (MLB) as a member club of the Central Division of the National League (NL). The team's name alludes to the city's association with the brewing industry and has been used by several other baseball teams that have called Milwaukee h
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Milwaukee Brewers minor league players
Below is a partial list of minor league baseball players in the Milwaukee Brewers system.
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Milwaukee Brewers Wall of HonorThe Milwaukee Brewers Wall of Honor is an exhibit located at American Family Field in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, that commemorates baseball players, coaches, executives, and broadcasters who have made significant contributions to the Milwaukee Brewers Major League Baseball team and meet set criteria regarding career milestones or service time. The team was establ
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Milwaukee Brewers all-time roster
The Milwaukee Brewers are a Major League Baseball (MLB) franchise based in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Established in Seattle, Washington, as the Seattle Pilots in 1969, the team became the Milwaukee Brewers after relocating to Milwaukee in 1970. The franchise played in the American League until 1998 when it moved to the National League in conjunction with a major
Resolution source
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.mlb.com/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Milwaukee Brewers vs. Minnesota Twins" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$0 in lifetime turnover and $19K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is sourced from https://www.mlb.com/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 23 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Milwaukee Brewers vs. Minnesota Twins"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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