Resolution criteria on PolyGram: In the upcoming MLB game between the Houston Astros and Cincinnati Reds, scheduled for May 9 at 4:10PM ET: This market will resolve to "Houston Astros" if the Houston Astros win the game. This market will resolve to "Cincinnati Reds" if the Cincinnati Reds win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Houston Astros vs. Cincinnati Reds | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| NRFI | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| O/U 7.5 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| O/U 6.5 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Spread -1.5 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Spread -2.5 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
The Houston Astros face the Cincinnati Reds on 9 May at 4:10 PM ET in a regular-season Major League Baseball matchup. The current order book on Polymarket prices an Astros victory at 6% implied probability, reflecting substantial confidence in a Cincinnati win. This pricing emerges from real-time trading activity across the platform's liquidity pools, where the spread between bid and ask prices continuously adjusts as new information reaches the market.
The Astros have historically been the stronger franchise over the past five seasons, winning the AL West in 2022 and 2023 whilst the Reds have finished below .500 in recent campaigns. However, single-game outcomes in baseball carry inherent volatility; home-field advantage, starting pitcher matchups, and recent form can shift expected win probabilities substantially. The 6% figure suggests traders are pricing in either a significant Reds advantage in this specific fixture or are heavily weighting Cincinnati's home-field status and recent performance trajectory.
Key variables for traders monitoring this market include the confirmed starting pitchers, injury reports released in the days preceding the game, and any weather disruptions that might affect play at the scheduled venue. Recent roster moves or performance streaks by either team could alter the current probability if they reach market participants before settlement. The settlement window extends to 16 May, allowing time for postponements or rescheduling should weather or other factors intervene.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.mlb.com/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Houston Astros vs. Cincinnati Reds" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$623K in lifetime turnover and $704K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 2% by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $623K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.mlb.com/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 16 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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