Trade: Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: In the upcoming MLB game between the Atlanta Braves and Miami Marlins, scheduled for May 19 at 4:10PM ET: This market will resolve to "Atlanta Braves" if the Atlanta Braves win the game. This market will resolve to "Miami Marlins" if the Miami Marlins win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $1K
- Total Volume
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- 24h Volume
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- Open Interest
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Market outcomes
| Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins | 64% YES | 36% NO |
| NRFI | 47% YES | 53% NO |
Market context
The Atlanta Braves face the Miami Marlins in an MLB regular-season matchup on 19 May at 4:10PM ET. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 64% implied probability for a Braves victory, pricing the Marlins at 36%. This probability spread reflects the Braves' stronger roster composition and recent performance trajectory relative to their divisional opponent.
Historically, the Braves have maintained a competitive advantage in head-to-head matchups against the Marlins over recent seasons, with Atlanta's playoff appearances and sustained roster investment contrasting sharply with Miami's rebuilding phases. The Marlins have operated with one of baseball's lowest payrolls, which typically correlates with lower win probabilities in individual games against better-resourced competitors. The current 64% probability for Atlanta aligns with preseason expectations that positioned the Braves as division favourites.
Key variables affecting this specific matchup include starting pitcher assignments, which typically influence game outcomes by 3–5 percentage points depending on ERA differentials and recent form. Weather conditions at Truist Park in Atlanta—temperature and wind direction—can materially affect scoring in afternoon games. Recent injury reports for either roster, particularly among position players or relief pitchers, warrant monitoring before settlement on 26 May. The Braves' home-field advantage at Truist Park historically contributes approximately 2–3 percentage points to win probability in neutral matchups.
Wikipedia Context
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Atlanta BravesThe Atlanta Braves are an American professional baseball team based in the Atlanta metropolitan area. The Braves compete in Major League Baseball (MLB) as a member club of the National League (NL) East Division. The club was founded in Boston, Massachusetts, in 1871 as the Boston Red Stockings. The Braves are one of two remaining National League charter fran
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Atlanta Braves minor league players
Below are the rosters of the minor league affiliates of the Atlanta Braves:
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Atlanta Braves all-time roster
The Atlanta Braves are a National League ballclub (1966–present) previously located in Milwaukee 1953–1965 and in Boston 1871–1952. The Boston teams are sometimes called Boston Red Stockings 1871–1876, Boston Red Caps 1876–1882, Boston Beaneaters 1883–1906, Boston Doves 1907–1910, Boston Rustlers 1911, Boston Braves 1912–1935, Boston Bees 1936–1940, Boston B
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Atlanta Braves tomahawk chop and name controversyThe Atlanta Braves tomahawk chop and name controversy involves the name and tomahawk chop tradition by the Atlanta Braves, an American Major League Baseball (MLB) franchise. Native Americans have been questioning the Braves' mascot choices since 1972. Native American objections to the tomahawk chop received much attention during the 1990s and have continued
Resolution source
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.mlb.com/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$0 in lifetime turnover and $1K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is sourced from https://www.mlb.com/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 26 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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