Trade: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: In the upcoming MLB game between the Arizona Diamondbacks and Miami Marlins, scheduled for June 9 at 6:40PM ET: This market will resolve to "Arizona Diamondbacks" if the Arizona Diamondbacks win the game. This market will resolve to "Miami Marlins" if the Miami Marlins win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $47
- Total Volume
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- 24h Volume
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- Open Interest
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Market outcomes
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| NRFI | 50% YES | 50% NO |
Market context
The Arizona Diamondbacks travel to Miami to face the Marlins on 9 June at 6:40PM ET in a regular-season MLB matchup. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 50% implied probability for an Arizona victory, indicating the market perceives this as a genuine toss-up between the two franchises. This even split suggests traders are pricing in comparable strength or uncertainty across both sides heading into the fixture.
Historical matchups between these teams provide limited predictive power for single-game outcomes, though seasonal performance differentials typically matter more. The Diamondbacks have generally finished ahead of the Marlins in recent years, though Miami occasionally produces competitive stretches. A 50-50 split at this stage likely reflects either genuine parity in perceived quality or insufficient pre-game information to move the probability meaningfully in either direction.
Traders should monitor roster availability and starting pitcher assignments in the days preceding the match, as these remain primary drivers of single-game pricing. Injury reports, particularly affecting key position players or the designated starter, historically shift implied probabilities by 3–5 percentage points. Weather conditions at loanDepot Park in Miami—notably heat and humidity in early June—can influence game dynamics, though this rarely moves markets substantially. The settlement window extends to 16 June at 22:40 UTC, allowing for postponements or rescheduling without market closure.
Wikipedia Context
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Arizona DiamondbacksThe Arizona Diamondbacks are an American professional baseball team based in Phoenix, Arizona. The Diamondbacks compete in Major League Baseball (MLB) as a member club of the National League (NL) West Division. The franchise was established on March 9, 1995 and began play in 1998 as an expansion team. The team plays its home games at Chase Field. Along with
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Arizona Diamondbacks minor league players
Below is a partial list of minor league baseball players of the minor league affiliates of the Arizona Diamondbacks:
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Arizona Diamondbacks all-time roster
The following is a list of past and current players who have played in at least one game for the Arizona Diamondbacks franchise. Players in Bold are members of the National Baseball Hall of Fame.
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Arizona Diamondbacks award winners and league leaders
This is a list of award winners and league leaders for the Arizona Diamondbacks professional baseball team. The Diamondbacks began play as a member of the National League in 1998 as a part of the most recent MLB expansion.
Resolution source
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.mlb.com/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$0 in lifetime turnover and $47 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is sourced from https://www.mlb.com/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 16 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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