Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This event is for the upcoming Copa Libertadores game, scheduled for Thursday, May 7, 2026 between Independiente Medellín and CR Flamengo.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Independiente Medellín | 3% YES | 97% NO |
| Draw (Independiente Medellín vs. CR Flamengo) | 31% YES | 70% NO |
| CR Flamengo | 74% YES | 26% NO |
Independiente Medellín will face CR Flamengo in a Copa Libertadores fixture on Thursday, 7 May 2026. The current order book on Polymarket prices a YES outcome at 3%, reflecting strong market conviction towards a Flamengo victory or draw. This probability has formed through active trading on the platform's order book, where the spread between bid and ask reflects genuine uncertainty about match outcomes, though the skew is pronounced.
Historically, Flamengo enters such continental matchups as favourites given their superior recent form in Brazilian football and consistent Copa Libertadores participation. Independiente Medellín, whilst a respected Colombian side with continental pedigree, typically trades at longer odds when facing top-tier Brazilian opposition. The 3% probability sits at the extreme end of typical match pricing, suggesting traders view a Medellín victory as a genuine outlier scenario rather than a plausible base case.
Key catalysts before settlement include team news regarding injuries or suspensions, which typically emerge in the 48 hours preceding the match. Flamengo's domestic fixture schedule in early May will signal their rotation strategy and squad freshness. Weather conditions in Medellín—altitude and humidity—occasionally influence match dynamics, though this is already partially priced into baseline expectations. Any significant shift in the order book would likely stem from unexpected squad absences or tactical announcements rather than fundamental reassessment of relative quality.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://conmebollibertadores.com/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Independiente Medellín vs. CR Flamengo" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$221K in lifetime turnover and $22K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 10% by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $46K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://conmebollibertadores.com/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 8 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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