Resolution criteria on PolyGram: In the upcoming La Liga game between Rayo Vallecano de Madrid and Villarreal CF, scheduled for May 17, 2026 at 1:00 PM ET: This market will resolve based on the final score of the Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Villarreal CF match originally scheduled for May 17, 2026 at 1:00 PM ET, considering only the result at the end of 90 minutes of regulation plus stoppage time; extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Exact Score: 1-1 | 12% YES | 89% NO |
| Exact Score: 2-1 | 9% YES | 92% NO |
| Exact Score: 1-0 | 9% YES | 92% NO |
| Exact Score: 2-2 | 6% YES | 94% NO |
| Exact Score: 0-0 | 6% YES | 94% NO |
| Exact Score: 2-0 | 6% YES | 94% NO |
| Exact Score: 3-1 | 4% YES | 96% NO |
| Exact Score: 3-2 | 3% YES | 97% NO |
Rayo Vallecano and Villarreal will meet on 17 May 2026 in a La Liga fixture, with settlement determined by the final score at 90 minutes plus stoppage time. The current order book on Polymarket reflects an 11% implied probability for this exact-score market, indicating traders view a specific scoreline as unlikely relative to the broader distribution of possible outcomes. Exact-score markets typically concentrate probability mass on the most common results—draws and narrow victories—whilst dispersing remaining probability across dozens of less frequent scorelines.
Historically, La Liga matches between mid-table sides produce draws in roughly 25–30% of cases, with single-goal margins accounting for the plurality of decisive results. Rayo Vallecano's home record and Villarreal's recent form will shape which exact scores attract the heaviest backing. The 11% probability suggests the market is pricing this particular outcome as materially less likely than modal results; traders should assess whether this reflects genuine fixture dynamics or represents mispricing relative to team-specific data from the 2025–26 season.
Relevant catalysts include team news and injury updates in the weeks preceding the match, as absences of key players can shift expected goal distributions. Fixture congestion late in the season may affect squad rotation and fatigue levels. Traders should monitor official La Liga scheduling confirmations and any weather forecasts closer to the date, as these can influence match tempo and scoring patterns. The settlement window closes at 17:00 UTC on match day, allowing only the final whistle result to determine resolution.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.laliga.com/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Villarreal CF - Exact Score" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$112 in lifetime turnover and $50K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is strong — order books support five-figure trades with single-cent slippage.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.laliga.com/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 17 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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