Resolution criteria on PolyGram: In the upcoming La Liga game between Rayo Vallecano de Madrid and Girona FC, scheduled for May 11, 2026 at 3:00 PM ET: This market will resolve based on the final score of the Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Girona FC match originally scheduled for May 11, 2026 at 3:00 PM ET, considering only the result at the end of 90 minutes of regulation plus stoppage time; extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Exact Score: 1-1 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Exact Score: 2-1 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Exact Score: 1-0 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Exact Score: 2-2 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Exact Score: 0-0 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Exact Score: 2-0 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Exact Score: 3-1 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Exact Score: 3-2 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Rayo Vallecano and Girona meet on 11 May 2026 in a La Liga fixture with settlement at 19:00 UTC. The market resolves to the exact final score at 90 minutes plus stoppage time; any outcome not explicitly listed settles as "Any Other Score." The 13% crowd-implied probability reflects current positioning on Polymarket's order book, where traders are pricing the likelihood of a specific scoreline materialising rather than the broader match outcome.
Exact-score markets in La Liga typically see low probabilities on individual results because the combinatorial nature of football scorelines creates wide distribution. Historical data from comparable fixtures shows that even favoured outcomes rarely exceed 20% implied probability; the most common scorelines in top-flight Spanish football cluster around 1–1, 2–1, and 1–0 results. The current 13% suggests traders view this particular scoreline as moderately likely relative to alternatives, though still a minority outcome within the full range of possibilities.
Traders should monitor team news and injury reports ahead of the fixture, particularly regarding key attacking or defensive personnel. Rayo Vallecano's form trajectory and Girona's European commitments (if applicable in the 2025–26 season) may influence tactical setup and squad rotation decisions. Weather conditions and pitch state on match day can affect scoring patterns. The settlement window closes at kick-off, so any late-breaking developments affecting team selection will be reflected in final order-book pricing before markets lock.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.laliga.com/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Girona FC - Exact Score" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$19K in lifetime turnover and $116K of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $19K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.laliga.com/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 11 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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