Resolution criteria on PolyGram: In the upcoming La Liga game between Girona FC and Real Sociedad de Fútbol, scheduled for May 14, 2026 at 2:00 PM ET: This event contains halftime result markets for home, draw, and away outcomes within the first 45 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Girona FC | 35% YES | 65% NO |
| Draw | 40% YES | 61% NO |
| Real Sociedad de Fútbol | 25% YES | 75% NO |
Girona and Real Sociedad meet on 14 May 2026 in a La Liga fixture, with traders currently pricing a 35% probability of a Girona halftime lead on Polymarket's order book. The match kicks off at 2:00 PM ET, settling at the conclusion of the first 45 minutes plus any stoppage time awarded by the referee. This halftime-only market isolates early-game dynamics from full-match outcomes, making it sensitive to team setup, early aggression, and opening-phase execution rather than overall quality or fatigue factors that emerge later.
Girona's recent form and home advantage typically support stronger halftime probabilities, though 35% suggests the market is pricing meaningful uncertainty. Comparable La Liga halftime markets have shown that away sides like Real Sociedad often start cautiously, particularly in May fixtures where league position and European qualification spots may already be settled. Historical data on these clubs' opening-half records—Girona's pressing intensity versus Sociedad's possession-based approach—provides context for how quickly either team establishes control in the opening minutes.
Team news, injury confirmations, and tactical announcements in the 48 hours before kickoff will likely shift the order book. Real Sociedad's squad availability and any late-season rotation decisions could influence their halftime aggression. Weather conditions at Girona's stadium and referee assignment may also affect early-game tempo. Traders should monitor official team sheets and any statements from either manager regarding starting lineups, as these directly impact the probability formation on Polymarket's book.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.laliga.com/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Girona FC vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol - Halftime Result" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$40 in lifetime turnover and $8K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $40 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.laliga.com/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 14 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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