Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This event is for the upcoming J2 100 Year Vision League game, scheduled for Saturday, May 2, 2026 between Tokushima Vortis and Ehime FC.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Tokushima Vortis | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Draw (Tokushima Vortis vs. Ehime FC) | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Ehime FC | 100% YES | 0% NO |
Tokushima Vortis will face Ehime FC in a J2 League fixture on 2 May 2026. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 0% implied probability for the YES outcome, indicating traders are pricing in either an extremely low likelihood of the specified event occurring or minimal liquidity at current price levels. This settlement window closes on 2 May at 05:00 UTC, providing roughly four months for information to accumulate before resolution.
J2 League matches between mid-table sides typically generate modest trading volumes on prediction markets, particularly when settlement dates extend several months forward. Historical precedent suggests that early-season probabilities in football prediction markets often shift materially as fixture dates approach, driven by team form, injury announcements, and managerial changes. The current zero probability may reflect either genuine consensus that the outcome is impossible under the resolution criteria, or simply that no trader has yet posted a competitive bid at any price level.
Traders should monitor official J2 League fixture confirmations, team news from both clubs' media channels, and any schedule adjustments that might affect the 2 May date. Recent managerial appointments or significant player transfers at either club could shift market sentiment. The settlement criteria—what constitutes a YES resolution—will determine whether the current probability reflects rational pricing or an artefact of thin order books. Confirmation of the fixture's occurrence and clarification of resolution terms represent the primary catalysts for market movement.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.jleague.jp/en/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Tokushima Vortis vs. Ehime FC" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$5K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for around a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.jleague.jp/en/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 2 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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