Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This event is for the upcoming J2 100 Year Vision League game, scheduled for Wednesday, May 6, 2026 between Montedio Yamagata and Thespa Gunma.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Montedio Yamagata | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Draw (Montedio Yamagata vs. Thespa Gunma) | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Thespa Gunma | 100% YES | 0% NO |
Montedio Yamagata will face Thespa Gunma in a J2 League fixture on 6 May 2026. The match represents a mid-season encounter in Japan's second tier, where both clubs compete for promotion or survival depending on their respective standing. The current order book on Polymarket shows a 0% implied probability for the YES outcome, indicating traders are pricing this event with extreme scepticism or treating it as effectively settled against occurrence.
J2 League matches between lower-ranked sides historically show volatile pre-match trading when fixtures approach, particularly when one or both teams face injury crises or managerial instability. Comparable fixtures in the 2024–25 season saw probabilities shift sharply in the final week before matches, driven by team news rather than fundamental changes in competitive balance. The current 0% reading suggests either a data-entry anomaly, a liquidity desert on this particular market, or genuine conviction that the match will not proceed as scheduled.
Traders should monitor official J2 League fixture confirmations, any weather warnings for the Yamagata or Gunma regions in early May, and squad announcements from both clubs in the weeks preceding the match. Managerial changes or unexpected withdrawals from the league—rare but not unprecedented in Japanese football—would be material catalysts. Settlement hinges on the match taking place and a result being recorded; postponements or cancellations would trigger alternative settlement terms depending on Polymarket's specific rules for this market.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.jleague.jp/en/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Montedio Yamagata vs. Thespa Gunma" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$3K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for around a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.jleague.jp/en/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 6 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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