Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Naho Sato and Kanako Osafune in the ITF Women Nakhon Pathom, originally scheduled for May 14, 2026 at 1:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Naho Sato' if Naho Sato advances against Kanako Osafune. This market will resolve to 'Kanako Osafune' if Kanako Osafune advances against Naho Sato. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| ITF Nakhon Pathom: Naho Sato vs Kanako Osafune | 72% YES | 28% NO |
| Completed Match | 50% YES | 50% NO |
Naho Sato and Kanako Osafune will compete in the ITF Women's tournament at Nakhon Pathom, Thailand, scheduled for 14 May 2026. The match represents a lower-tier professional fixture on the ITF circuit, where both players are competing for ranking points and prize money. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 71% implied probability for Sato's advancement, suggesting market participants view her as the stronger favourite heading into the encounter.
Sato and Osafune operate within the ITF Women's 25K and 15K circuit tiers, where historical performance data shows significant variance in outcomes based on recent form, surface adaptation, and tournament-specific conditions. Hard courts in Southeast Asia have historically favoured players with consistent baseline games and strong movement patterns. The 71% probability sits within the range typical for matches between players of moderately differentiated rankings on the ITF circuit, where favourites win approximately 65–75% of the time depending on the ranking gap and recent tournament results.
Traders should monitor official ITF and WTA announcements regarding player withdrawals or schedule changes in the week preceding 14 May. Thailand's weather patterns during May—including potential rain delays—could trigger the seven-day resolution clause if the match is postponed beyond 21 May. Recent injury reports or late-round exits from other tournaments in the region would provide updated form signals. Confirmation of the match proceeding as scheduled typically arrives 48–72 hours before play.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "ITF Nakhon Pathom: Naho Sato vs Kanako Osafune" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$10 in lifetime turnover and $18 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $10 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 21 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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