Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This event is for the upcoming Ligue 2 game, scheduled for Saturday, May 9, 2026 between AS Saint-Étienne and Amiens SC.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| AS Saint-Étienne | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Draw (AS Saint-Étienne vs. Amiens SC) | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Amiens SC | 0% YES | 100% NO |
AS Saint-Étienne will travel to face Amiens SC in a Ligue 2 fixture on Saturday, 9 May 2026. The market currently reflects a 100% implied probability on Polymarket's order book, indicating traders are pricing this as a certainty event. Given the settlement window closes at 18:00 UTC on match day, liquidity and pricing will depend on how the order book develops in the final hours before kick-off.
The 100% probability reading warrants scrutiny against historical precedent. Ligue 2 matches rarely settle at such extremes unless the underlying event has become impossible—such as fixture cancellation, league suspension, or administrative intervention. Saint-Étienne and Amiens are both established Ligue 2 clubs with regular playing schedules, making outright non-occurrence unlikely. The current pricing may reflect either extremely thin liquidity on the order book, with minimal YES or NO positions creating a skewed midpoint, or early-stage market formation where traders have not yet built depth.
Traders should monitor fixture confirmation through official Ligue 2 communications and club announcements in the weeks preceding the match. Weather disruptions, stadium access issues, or player availability crises could theoretically affect fixture status, though such scenarios remain rare in French professional football. The settlement mechanism will depend on whether the match is played as scheduled; any postponement or cancellation would require explicit clarification from the market operator. Order book depth and spread will likely tighten as the match date approaches and more traders participate.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.ligue2.fr/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "AS Saint-Étienne vs. Amiens SC" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$31K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.ligue2.fr/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 9 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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