Trade: FC Nantes vs. Toulouse FC - More Markets
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: More markets for the Ligue 1 game, scheduled for May 17 at 3:00 PM ET.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $106K
- Total Volume
- $11K
- 24h Volume
- $73
- Open Interest
- $11K
Market outcomes
| FC Nantes (-1.5) | 16% YES | 85% NO |
| Toulouse FC (-1.5) | 15% YES | 85% NO |
| FC Nantes (-2.5) | 8% YES | 93% NO |
| Toulouse FC (-2.5) | 6% YES | 95% NO |
| O/U 0.5 | 91% YES | 9% NO |
| O/U 1.5 | 79% YES | 21% NO |
| O/U 2.5 | 53% YES | 48% NO |
| O/U 3.5 | 31% YES | 70% NO |
Market context
FC Nantes and Toulouse FC are scheduled to meet in Ligue 1 on 17 May 2026 at 3:00 PM ET. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 17% implied probability for the "More Markets" outcome, suggesting traders are pricing in a relatively low likelihood of this event occurring relative to alternative settlements. This probability has formed through live trading activity on the platform's order book, where the spread between bid and ask prices establishes the consensus price discovery mechanism.
Ligue 1's final-day fixture scheduling often produces volatile trading in adjacent markets as teams' league positions crystallise. Historical precedent shows that late-season Nantes–Toulouse matchups have generated modest trading volumes compared to fixtures involving Paris Saint-Germain or Olympique Marseille, though both clubs' recent form and European qualification stakes can shift market expectations sharply. The 17% level suggests traders are treating this particular outcome as a tail event rather than a base-case scenario.
Traders should monitor team news releases, injury announcements, and official Ligue 1 fixture confirmations through May. Any changes to either squad's injury status or managerial decisions in the weeks preceding the match could alter the probability materially. Additionally, the final league standings and whether either club has secured or been eliminated from European competition by that date will influence tactical approaches and player availability, potentially shifting market sentiment on the order book.
Wikipedia Context
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FC NantesFootball Club de Nantes, commonly referred to as FC Nantes or simply Nantes, is a French professional football club based in Nantes in Pays de la Loire. The club was founded on 21 April 1943, during World War II, through a merger of five smaller local clubs based in the city. From 1992 to 2007, the club was referred to as FC Nantes Atlantique before revertin
Resolution source
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.ligue1.com/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "FC Nantes vs. Toulouse FC - More Markets" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$11K in lifetime turnover and $106K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $73 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is sourced from https://www.ligue1.com/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 17 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "FC Nantes vs. Toulouse FC - More Markets"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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