Resolution criteria on PolyGram: In the upcoming Ligue 1 game between AS Monaco FC and Lille OSC, scheduled for May 10, 2026 at 3:00 PM ET: This event contains halftime result markets for home, draw, and away outcomes within the first 45 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| AS Monaco FC | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Draw | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Lille OSC | 0% YES | 100% NO |
AS Monaco and Lille meet on 10 May 2026 in a Ligue 1 fixture, with settlement determined by the halftime scoreline after 45 minutes plus stoppage time. The 0% implied probability on the order book reflects either a technical pricing anomaly or genuine market consensus that one outcome holds negligible likelihood. Given Polymarket's depth on European football markets, such extreme probabilities typically emerge when traders have priced in asymmetric information or when liquidity remains thin on a specific leg of the market.
Halftime markets in Ligue 1 fixtures historically show greater volatility than full-match outcomes, as first-half scoring patterns diverge substantially from season-long trends. Monaco's 2024–25 campaign saw inconsistent early-game performance, whilst Lille has demonstrated stronger defensive discipline in opening periods. The 0% reading suggests traders may be heavily favouring one team's halftime outcome with confidence, though such extremes often represent liquidity gaps rather than true certainty. Comparable Ligue 1 halftime markets typically settle with more distributed probabilities across home, draw, and away outcomes.
Traders should monitor team news and tactical announcements in the days preceding the match, particularly regarding injuries to key attacking or defensive personnel. Lille's recent form and Monaco's home record in May will influence early-game intensity. The settlement window closes at 19:00 GMT on match day, allowing only pre-match adjustments. Current pricing on Polymarket's order book may shift materially once deeper liquidity enters or if significant team information surfaces.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.ligue1.com/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "AS Monaco FC vs. Lille OSC - Halftime Result" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$528 in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $528 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.ligue1.com/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 10 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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