Resolution criteria on PolyGram: In the upcoming FIFA World Cup game between Spain and Cabo Verde, scheduled for June 15, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET: This event contains halftime result markets for home, draw, and away outcomes within the first 45 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Spain | 71% YES | 29% NO |
| Cabo Verde | 6% YES | 95% NO |
| Draw | 23% YES | 77% NO |
Spain will face Cabo Verde in a World Cup fixture on 15 June 2026, with settlement determined by the halftime scoreline after 45 minutes plus stoppage time. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 71% probability of a Spain halftime lead, pricing in the substantial quality differential between the two squads. This probability formation reflects both historical precedent and current squad composition assessments.
Spain's recent tournament performances provide relevant context. In the 2022 World Cup, Spain reached the quarter-finals and demonstrated consistent first-half dominance across group matches, typically establishing leads or controlling possession early. Cabo Verde, conversely, has never qualified for a World Cup finals tournament; this represents their first appearance. Historical data on inaugural World Cup participants shows vulnerability in early phases, particularly against established European sides. Spain's average first-half goal differential in recent competitive fixtures against lower-ranked opponents exceeds 1.5 goals, suggesting the 71% probability reflects realistic expectations rather than overvaluation.
Traders should monitor squad announcements through early June, particularly regarding Spain's final 23-man selection and any late injury developments. Fixture scheduling within the group stage may influence team rotation decisions, though Spain's seeding typically ensures they prioritise early matches. Weather conditions in the host nation and venue-specific factors—including altitude if applicable—could affect early-game tempo. Recent form in qualifying rounds and any pre-tournament friendlies will provide updated information on tactical setup and player fitness closer to the settlement window closure on 15 June at 16:00 UTC.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.fifa.com/fifaplus/en/tournaments/mens/worldcup. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Spain vs. Cabo Verde - Halftime Result" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$52 in lifetime turnover and $541 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $14 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.fifa.com/fifaplus/en/tournaments/mens/worldcup. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 15 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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