Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This event is for the upcoming FIFA International Friendlies game, scheduled for Saturday, June 6, 2026 between Venezuela and Türkiye.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Venezuela | 47% YES | 53% NO |
| Draw (Venezuela vs. Türkiye) | 45% YES | 55% NO |
| Türkiye | 47% YES | 53% NO |
Venezuela and Türkiye will meet in a FIFA International Friendly on Saturday, 6 June 2026. The match carries no qualification or tournament stakes, meaning team selection and tactical intensity may diverge significantly from competitive fixtures. The current order book on Polymarket prices a Venezuela victory at 47 per cent implied probability, reflecting modest backing for an upset against a higher-ranked opponent.
Türkiye has consistently ranked in the top 50 FIFA nations over the past decade, whilst Venezuela typically sits outside the top 100. Historical head-to-head records between these sides are sparse, but Türkiye's structural advantage in player depth and competitive experience suggests the market's lean towards the Turkish side is rational. Friendly matches, however, introduce volatility: squad rotation, travel fatigue, and motivation asymmetries can produce results that contradict ranking differentials. The 47 per cent probability assigned to Venezuela reflects meaningful uncertainty rather than dismissal.
Key variables for traders include squad announcements from both federations, which typically arrive one to two weeks before friendlies and can signal commitment levels. Injury updates to key players—particularly any Turkish regulars—would shift the probability meaningfully. Venue confirmation and recent form in qualifying campaigns or continental competitions will also matter; any recent poor results by Türkiye or unexpected wins by Venezuela could trigger repricing. The settlement window closes at 23:00 UTC on match day, allowing live-market adjustments as team sheets emerge.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.fifa.com. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Venezuela vs. Türkiye" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $924 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.fifa.com. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 6 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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