Resolution criteria on PolyGram: In the upcoming FIFA International Friendlies game between United States and Senegal, scheduled for May 31, 2026 at 3:30 PM ET: This event contains halftime result markets for home, draw, and away outcomes within the first 45 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| United States | 50% YES | 51% NO |
| Draw | 50% YES | 51% NO |
| Senegal | 50% YES | 51% NO |
The United States men's national team will face Senegal in a FIFA International Friendly on 31 May 2026 at 3:30 PM ET. This market settles on the halftime result—whether the US leads, the teams are level, or Senegal leads after 45 minutes of play plus stoppage time. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 50% implied probability for a US halftime advantage, suggesting traders view the teams as evenly matched in the opening period.
Historical precedent for US-Senegal encounters and comparable friendly fixtures offer context for evaluating halftime dynamics. The teams last met in a World Cup group stage in 2018, where the US won 2–1 after trailing at the interval. Senegal's recent form in friendlies has shown competitive defensive structures, particularly in the first half, whilst US teams typically establish possession early in matches. Halftime results in international friendlies tend to favour the team controlling midfield tempo; the 50-50 split suggests neither side is expected to dominate territorially in the opening 45 minutes.
Traders should monitor team news regarding squad availability and tactical announcements closer to the fixture date. Injury updates to key US midfielders or Senegal's forward line could shift halftime expectations, as could confirmation of starting lineups. Weather conditions at the venue and any late fixture rescheduling would also affect preparation patterns. Current betting markets on full-time outcomes may diverge from halftime pricing, offering arbitrage opportunities as the settlement window approaches.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.fifa.com. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "United States vs. Senegal - Halftime Result" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $89 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.fifa.com. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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