Resolution criteria on PolyGram: More markets for the FIFA International Friendlies game, scheduled for June 4 at 12:00 PM ET.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Slovenia (-1.5) | 41% YES | 59% NO |
| Cyprus (-1.5) | 42% YES | 59% NO |
| Slovenia (-2.5) | 38% YES | 63% NO |
| Cyprus (-2.5) | 38% YES | 62% NO |
| O/U 3.5 | 48% YES | 52% NO |
| O/U 4.5 | 40% YES | 61% NO |
| O/U 5.5 | 39% YES | 61% NO |
| Both Teams to Score | 51% YES | 49% NO |
Slovenia and Cyprus will meet in a FIFA International Friendly on 4 June at 12:00 PM ET. The current order book on Polymarket prices the "More Markets" outcome at 41% implied probability, reflecting trader expectations that additional betting markets will be offered for this fixture beyond those already live.
Historical precedent suggests friendly matches between lower-ranked nations attract modest liquidity and limited market proliferation compared to competitive qualifiers or major tournament fixtures. Slovenia (ranked 60th by FIFA) and Cyprus (ranked 118th) represent a pairing unlikely to generate the same commercial interest as higher-profile internationals. Polymarket's decision to expand market offerings typically correlates with trading volume and user demand; friendlies between peripheral European sides have historically seen single-market or dual-market coverage rather than comprehensive suites. The 41% probability reflects scepticism that this particular match warrants the operational overhead of additional derivatives.
Traders should monitor whether either nation announces squad changes or injury updates in the days preceding the fixture, as significant roster news occasionally triggers renewed interest and platform expansion. The scheduling proximity to Euro 2026 qualifiers may also influence whether broadcasters or betting platforms view this friendly as a meaningful data point. Polymarket's decision will likely hinge on observed order book activity and user requests in the week before settlement; early trading volume on existing markets will be the primary catalyst determining whether the platform deems additional offerings commercially viable.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.fifa.com. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Slovenia vs. Cyprus - More Markets" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $1K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.fifa.com. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 4 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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