Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This event is for the upcoming FIFA International Friendlies game, scheduled for Sunday, June 7, 2026 between Liechtenstein and Cyprus.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Liechtenstein | 46% YES | 54% NO |
| Draw (Liechtenstein vs. Cyprus) | 46% YES | 54% NO |
| Cyprus | 46% YES | 54% NO |
Liechtenstein and Cyprus will meet in an international friendly fixture on 7 June 2026. Both nations compete in UEFA qualifying campaigns and use friendlies to test squad depth and tactical approaches ahead of major tournaments or qualifying rounds. The match carries moderate competitive weight typical of such encounters, where result variance remains high given the absence of knockout pressure.
Historically, Liechtenstein and Cyprus occupy similar tiers within European football—both rank outside the top 50 FIFA nations and have limited recent head-to-head records. Liechtenstein's home record in friendlies shows modest defensive stability, whilst Cyprus has demonstrated inconsistency in away fixtures. The current 47 per cent implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects genuine uncertainty; neither side enters as a clear favourite, and the fixture lacks the historical dominance patterns that would compress odds significantly. Comparable friendlies between nations of similar ranking typically settle near even odds unless one side carries recent momentum or injury concerns.
Traders should monitor squad announcements from both federations in the weeks preceding the match, as call-ups and injury news will shift expectations. Fixture congestion in domestic leagues immediately before 7 June may affect player availability and fatigue levels. Recent performance in qualifying matches—Cyprus competes in UEFA Nations League and World Cup qualification—will provide the most reliable signal for form. Weather conditions in the host nation and any late tactical shifts disclosed by coaching staff represent secondary catalysts. Settlement occurs at 13:00 UTC on match day.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.fifa.com. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Liechtenstein vs. Cyprus" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $1K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.fifa.com. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 7 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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