Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This event is for the upcoming FIFA International Friendlies game, scheduled for Sunday, May 31, 2026 between Czechia and Kosovo.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Czechia | 49% YES | 51% NO |
| Draw (Czechia vs. Kosovo) | 51% YES | 50% NO |
| Kosovo | 45% YES | 56% NO |
Czechia and Kosovo are scheduled to meet in a FIFA International Friendly on 31 May 2026. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 49% implied probability for a Czechia victory, suggesting near-parity between the two sides in trader expectations. Settlement occurs at 14:00 UTC on the fixture date.
Historically, Czechia holds a significant advantage in competitive matchups and squad depth. The nation qualified for the 2020 European Championship and regularly competes in UEFA Nations League fixtures at a higher level than Kosovo, whose senior programme is younger and less established. However, friendly matches often produce atypical results owing to squad rotation, fixture congestion, and reduced tactical intensity. The current 49% probability reflects this uncertainty: whilst Czechia enters as favourites on paper, the friendly format and Kosovo's occasional capacity to trouble stronger opponents create genuine two-way risk.
Key catalysts for traders include squad announcements from both federations in the weeks preceding the match, injury updates to key Czechia players, and the broader fixture calendar context—whether either team is managing workload ahead of other commitments. Recent UEFA Nations League standings and performance trends will inform team selection and motivation levels. The settlement window closes at match end, with no provision for extra time or penalties in friendly fixtures; the market resolves on regulation 90-minute result only.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.fifa.com. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Czechia vs. Kosovo" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $721 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.fifa.com. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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