Resolution criteria on PolyGram: In the upcoming FIFA International Friendlies game between Belgium and Tunisia, scheduled for June 6, 2026 at 9:00 AM ET: This market will resolve based on the final score of the Belgium vs. Tunisia match originally scheduled for June 6, 2026 at 9:00 AM ET, considering only the result at the end of 90 minutes of regulation plus stoppage time; extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. If the actual score is not one of the explicitly listed outcomes, the market resolves to "Any Other Score." If the match is postponed, the market will remain open until it is completed; if it is canceled with no make-up game, the market resolves to "0-0." The primary resolution source for this market…
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Exact Score: 0-0 | 49% YES | 51% NO |
| Exact Score: 0-1 | 49% YES | 51% NO |
| Exact Score: 1-0 | 50% YES | 51% NO |
| Exact Score: 0-2 | 50% YES | 51% NO |
| Exact Score: 1-1 | 50% YES | 51% NO |
| Exact Score: 2-0 | 50% YES | 51% NO |
| Exact Score: 0-3 | 50% YES | 51% NO |
| Exact Score: 1-2 | 50% YES | 51% NO |
Belgium and Tunisia will contest a FIFA International Friendly on 6 June 2026, with the market settling on the exact final score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. The 49% YES probability on Polymarket's order book reflects the combined likelihood of all explicitly listed scorelines, with the remaining 51% distributed across "Any Other Score"—a catch-all category that typically captures the majority of possible outcomes in football matches. This probability distribution suggests traders view a specific listed result as moderately probable but recognise the inherent difficulty in predicting exact scores.
Historical precedent shows exact-score markets in friendly fixtures tend to concentrate probability mass around low-scoring outcomes (0–0, 1–0, 1–1) and narrow wins. Belgium's recent form and squad composition will influence expectations; as of early 2026, the Belgian side remains competitive in European football despite squad transitions, whilst Tunisia typically operates as a lower-ranked African confederation opponent. The 49% reading suggests the market has already priced in Belgium's favouritism without overwhelming consensus on any single scoreline.
Traders should monitor team news releases and squad announcements closer to the fixture date, particularly injury updates for Belgium's key players. Friendly matches often feature rotated lineups and experimental tactics, which can suppress goal totals compared to competitive fixtures. Weather conditions at the venue and any late scheduling changes would also influence scoring patterns, though such details typically emerge only days before kickoff.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.fifa.com. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Belgium vs. Tunisia - Exact Score" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $53 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.fifa.com. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 6 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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