Resolution criteria on PolyGram: More markets for the League Two game, scheduled for May 15 at 3:00 PM ET.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Notts County FC (-1.5) | 26% YES | 74% NO |
| Chesterfield FC (-1.5) | 34% YES | 67% NO |
| Notts County FC (-2.5) | 18% YES | 82% NO |
| Chesterfield FC (-2.5) | 24% YES | 77% NO |
| O/U 0.5 | 69% YES | 31% NO |
| O/U 1.5 | 61% YES | 39% NO |
| O/U 2.5 | 52% YES | 48% NO |
| O/U 3.5 | 35% YES | 66% NO |
Notts County and Chesterfield will meet in a League Two fixture on 15 May 2026 at 3:00 PM ET. The current order book on Polymarket prices the YES outcome at 28%, reflecting a market view that the specific condition being wagered upon has roughly a one-in-four chance of occurring. This probability is being formed through live trading activity across the book's depth, with the spread between bid and ask orders determining the precise implied price traders face today.
Historical precedent suggests League Two matches in May often carry elevated uncertainty, particularly when playoff implications or final-day scenarios are in play. Notts County and Chesterfield have a long rivalry spanning multiple divisions; their recent encounters have typically been competitive, with neither side holding a decisive edge in head-to-head records. The 28% probability sits below even odds, indicating the market currently favours the alternative outcome, though the exact nature of that alternative depends on the specific market condition being settled.
Traders should monitor team news, injury updates, and final league standings as the fixture date approaches. Confirmation of squad availability and any late managerial changes could shift the order book meaningfully. The settlement window closes at 19:00 UTC on 15 May, giving traders roughly four hours after kickoff to adjust positions before resolution. Any official league announcements regarding fixture scheduling or rule changes would also merit attention in the weeks preceding the match.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.efl.com/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Notts County FC vs. Chesterfield FC - More Markets" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $9K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.efl.com/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 15 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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