Trade: El Gouna SC vs. Kahrabaa Ismailia FC - Exact Score
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: In the upcoming Egypt Egyptian Premier League game between El Gouna SC and Kahrabaa Ismailia FC, scheduled for May 12, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET: This market will resolve based on the final score of the El Gouna SC vs. Kahrabaa Ismailia FC match originally scheduled for May 12, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET, considering only the result at the end of 90 minutes of regulation plus stoppage time; extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $26K
- Total Volume
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- 24h Volume
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- Open Interest
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Market outcomes
| Exact Score: 1-3 | 5% YES | 96% NO |
| Exact Score: 2-2 | 6% YES | 95% NO |
| Exact Score: 3-3 | 48% YES | 52% NO |
| Exact Score: 0-0 | 11% YES | 89% NO |
| Exact Score: 0-3 | 4% YES | 96% NO |
| Exact Score: 3-1 | 5% YES | 95% NO |
| Exact Score: 0-1 | 10% YES | 90% NO |
| Exact Score: 1-0 | 12% YES | 88% NO |
Market context
El Gouna SC will face Kahrabaa Ismailia FC in an Egyptian Premier League fixture on 12 May 2026, with settlement determined by the final score at 90 minutes plus stoppage time. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 5% implied probability for this specific exact-score outcome, indicating substantial uncertainty around which precise scoreline will materialise. With multiple possible final scores across a typical match range, any single exact result carries inherently low probability; the market's pricing suggests traders view this particular outcome as less likely than baseline expectations.
Historical patterns in Egyptian Premier League matches show considerable variance in scorelines, with 1–0, 1–1, and 2–1 results appearing frequently across seasons. El Gouna's recent form and Kahrabaa's defensive record will inform whether low-scoring or higher-scoring outcomes dominate trader expectations. The 5% probability reflects the combined weight of all other possible exact scores receiving greater backing on the order book, a typical distribution when dozens of scoreline combinations compete for liquidity.
Traders should monitor team news, injury announcements, and any fixture rescheduling announcements in the weeks preceding 12 May, as these will shift probability distributions across the outcome space. Fixture congestion in the Egyptian league's final weeks may affect squad rotation and tactical approach. The settlement window closes at 14:00 UTC on match day, allowing approximately four hours post-kick-off for final score confirmation before resolution.
Wikipedia Context
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El GounaEl Gouna is an Egyptian city located on the Red Sea in the Red Sea Governorate, Egypt. It is located 20 kilometres north of Hurghada. It is part of the Red Sea Riviera, and a host city of the El Gouna Film Festival. It was created in 1990, and is owned and developed by Samih Sawiris' Orascom Development.
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El Gouna Film FestivalThe El Gouna Film Festival is an annual film festival held in the Red Sea resort city of El Gouna, Egypt. Founded in 2017, the festival is hosted by the El Gouna Convention and Culture Centre. The GFF focuses on storytelling trends, as well as emerging talents from Egypt and the rest of the world.
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El Gouna FCEl Gouna Football Club is an Egyptian football club based in the city of El Gouna, Egypt. The club currently plays in the Egyptian Premier League, the highest league in the Egyptian football league system.
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El Gouna International 2014
The El Gouna International 2014 is the men's edition of the 2014 El Gouna International, which is a PSA World Series event Gold. The event took place at the Abu Tig Marina in El Gouna in Egypt from 13 April to 18 April. Ramy Ashour won his second El Gouna International trophy, beating Mohamed El Shorbagy in the final.
Resolution source
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.efa.com.eg/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "El Gouna SC vs. Kahrabaa Ismailia FC - Exact Score" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$0 in lifetime turnover and $26K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is sourced from https://www.efa.com.eg/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 12 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "El Gouna SC vs. Kahrabaa Ismailia FC - Exact Score"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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