Sports

Trade: T20 Hong Kong Tri-Series, Women: Hong Kong, China vs China - Toss Match Double

Opened 7 May 2026 · Settles 17 May 2026

Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the combination of the pre-match coin toss and the final match result for the cricket match between Hong Kong, China and China scheduled for 2026-05-10 in T20 Hong Kong Tri-Series, Women. This market resolves according to (1) the official toss result and (2) the finalized match result as published by https://www.espncricinfo.com/. The outcome corresponding to Hong Kong, China will be considered correct if Hong Kong, China is officially recorded as winning both the toss and the match. The outcome corresponding to China will be considered correct if China is officially recorded as winning both the toss and the match.

PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.

Liquidity: —
Total Volume: $293
24h Volume: —
Open Interest: $226

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Market outcomes

HON	0% YES	100% NO
Draw	100% YES	0% NO
CHN	0% YES	100% NO

Market context

The T20 Hong Kong Tri-Series Women's match between Hong Kong and China on 10 May 2026 requires Hong Kong to win both the coin toss and the match itself for a YES resolution. This is a compound event with two independent variables: the toss outcome (approximately 50/50 proposition) and match victory, which depends on team strength, conditions, and form. The current 0% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects either minimal liquidity at the YES side or strong conviction amongst active traders that this specific combination is unlikely. With such a narrow market, the probability formation is likely driven by a small number of orders rather than deep consensus pricing.

Historically, women's T20 cricket markets involving Hong Kong have shown limited trading activity due to lower global audience interest compared to established cricket nations. Hong Kong's women's team competes at a developmental level, whilst China has invested significantly in women's cricket infrastructure in recent years. The compound nature of this market—requiring success in both toss and match—naturally depresses YES odds compared to a simple match-winner market. Comparable double-event markets typically see the combined probability fall well below either individual event's likelihood, particularly when one outcome (Hong Kong victory) is already considered less probable.

Traders should monitor team announcements regarding squad composition and any venue or scheduling changes closer to the match date. Weather forecasts for Hong Kong in May will influence pitch conditions and team preparation strategies. Updates from the International Cricket Council or Hong Kong Cricket Association regarding the tri-series format and fixture confirmations will clarify whether this match proceeds as scheduled, since any cancellation would affect settlement procedures.

Wikipedia Context

T206 Honus Wagner
The T206 Honus Wagner baseball card depicts the Pittsburgh Pirates' Honus Wagner, known as "The Flying Dutchman", a dead-ball era baseball player who is widely considered to be one of the best players of all time. The card was designed and issued by the American Tobacco Company (ATC) from 1909 to 1911 as part of its T206 series. Wagner refused to allow produ
Tao Hongjing
Tao Hongjing (456–536), courtesy name Tongming, was a Chinese alchemist, astronomer, calligrapher, military general, musician, physician, and pharmacologist during the Northern and Southern dynasties period. A polymathic individual of many talents, he was best known as a founder of the Shangqing "Highest Clarity" School of Taoism and the compiler-editor of t
The Hong Kong and China Gas Company
The Hong Kong and China Gas Company Limited, trading as Towngas, is the sole provider of territory-wide town gas in Hong Kong. Founded in 1862, it is one of the oldest listed companies in the territory.
Tao Hong (actress, born 1972)
Tao Hong is a Chinese actress and former synchronised swimmer. A National Games of China champion, Tao was part of the Chinese national team at several synchronised swimming competitions from 1987 to 1991, including the 1991 World Aquatics Championships.

Resolution source

This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.espncricinfo.com/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.

How to trade this market step by step

The mechanics for trading "T20 Hong Kong Tri-Series, Women: Hong Kong, China vs China - Toss Match Double" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.

Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.

How active is this market?

$293 in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.

The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.

Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.

Key terms

YES / NO share: A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
CLOB: Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
Liquidity: USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
UMA optimistic oracle: The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
Slippage: The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
Conditional token: ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.

See the full prediction-market glossary →

Frequently asked questions

How does this market resolve?

Resolution is sourced from https://www.espncricinfo.com/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.

When does this market close?

This prediction market is scheduled to close on 17 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.

How can I trade on "T20 Hong Kong Tri-Series, Women: Hong Kong, China vs China - Toss Match Double"?

To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.

What happens when the market resolves?

When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.

Risk and regulatory note

Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.

Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.

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