Resolution criteria on PolyGram: More markets for the Chinese Super League game, scheduled for May 15 at 7:35 AM ET.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Henan FC (-2.5) | 12% YES | 89% NO |
| Henan FC (-1.5) | 34% YES | 66% NO |
| Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC (-1.5) | 11% YES | 90% NO |
| Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC (-2.5) | 13% YES | 88% NO |
| O/U 1.5 | 76% YES | 25% NO |
| O/U 2.5 | 52% YES | 48% NO |
| O/U 3.5 | 32% YES | 69% NO |
| O/U 4.5 | 14% YES | 86% NO |
Henan FC and Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC are scheduled to meet in the Chinese Super League on 15 May 2026 at 7:35 AM ET. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 12% implied probability for the "More Markets" outcome, suggesting traders assess a low likelihood of additional betting markets materialising around this fixture before settlement closes on 15 May at 11:35 AM ET—roughly four hours after kick-off.
The Chinese Super League has experienced significant volatility in market liquidity and fixture scheduling over recent seasons, with administrative changes and sponsorship shifts occasionally triggering late-notice market expansions. Historical precedent shows that major domestic league matches in Asia typically see supplementary markets (such as first-goal scorer, corner counts, or player performance props) listed within 48 hours of fixture confirmation. However, the timing constraint here is acute: settlement occurs just hours after the match concludes, leaving minimal window for new market creation and trader participation.
Key catalysts include any official league announcements regarding broadcast partnerships or betting operator agreements in the coming weeks, as these often precede market expansion. Traders should monitor whether Polymarket's liquidity pool for Chinese Super League fixtures grows ahead of the settlement date, and whether competing platforms list additional markets that might signal demand. Fixture postponement or rescheduling would reset the timeline entirely. The current 12% probability reflects scepticism that sufficient market infrastructure will materialise given the compressed timeframe between kick-off and settlement.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.csl-china.com/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Henan FC vs. Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC - More Markets" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$26 in lifetime turnover and $21K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $26 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.csl-china.com/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 15 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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