Resolution criteria on PolyGram: Total corners markets for the Bundesliga game between FC St. Pauli 1910 and 1. FSV Mainz 05, scheduled for May 3, 2026 at 9:30 AM ET.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Total Corners: O/U 9.5 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Total Corners: O/U 7.5 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Total Corners: O/U 8.5 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Total Corners: O/U 10.5 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Total Corners: O/U 11.5 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
FC St. Pauli and 1. FSV Mainz 05 will contest a Bundesliga fixture on 3 May 2026, with settlement determined by total corner kicks awarded during the match. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 100% implied probability for YES, indicating traders are pricing in a corner total that meets or exceeds the threshold. This extreme pricing typically emerges when the threshold itself is set low relative to historical norms, or when one side of the market has faced minimal liquidity, allowing the probability to drift without meaningful counterbalance.
Bundesliga matches averaged 10.2 corners per game during the 2024–25 season, with corner counts ranging between 6 and 18 depending on team pressing intensity, defensive shape, and referee stringency. St. Pauli, promoted to the top flight, has historically generated corners at rates consistent with mid-table sides, whilst Mainz typically sits in the 9–11 corner range per match. A threshold set at 8 or 9 corners would align with these baselines; anything lower would explain the current consensus pricing.
Traders should monitor team news through late April, particularly injury status for key defensive players who influence pressing and set-piece frequency. Referee assignment, released roughly one week before the fixture, carries material weight on corner distribution. Weather conditions on match day—wind and rain increase aerial play and defensive clearances—warrant attention closer to 3 May. Polymarket's order book depth will likely remain thin until late April, when fixture-week liquidity typically increases and the market can recalibrate if new information emerges.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.bundesliga.com/en/bundesliga. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05 - Total Corners" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$3K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.bundesliga.com/en/bundesliga. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 3 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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