Resolution criteria on PolyGram: In the upcoming Bundesliga game between 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 and 1. FSV Mainz 05, scheduled for May 16, 2026 at 9:30 AM ET: This event contains halftime result markets for home, draw, and away outcomes within the first 45 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 | 39% YES | 61% NO |
| Draw | 38% YES | 63% NO |
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 | 25% YES | 76% NO |
Heidenheim travel to Mainz on 16 May 2026 for a Bundesliga fixture, with this market pricing the probability of a home win by halftime at 38% on Polymarket's order book. The settlement hinges on the result at the 45-minute mark plus any injury-time additions, excluding goals scored after the referee's whistle for the second half.
Halftime markets in Bundesliga fixtures typically reflect the attacking profiles and defensive solidity of both sides over a compressed timeframe. Heidenheim, having secured Bundesliga status through promotion, historically show cautious opening phases, whilst Mainz operate with a more expansive approach. Historical data from comparable mid-table Bundesliga matchups suggests home-side halftime wins occur in roughly 35–42% of fixtures when teams are evenly matched in quality. The current 38% probability sits within this range, indicating the market has priced in Heidenheim's home advantage without overweighting it.
Traders should monitor team news in the fortnight preceding the fixture, particularly injury status for key attacking players on either side. Mainz's recent form and whether they rotate personnel ahead of potential European qualification matches could shift halftime dynamics materially. Fixture congestion in late May often influences how aggressively sides approach opening periods. Weather conditions at the Voith-Arena on match day—wind and pitch state—can suppress early scoring, which would compress the probability range further. Polymarket's order book will tighten as kickoff approaches, reflecting late information on lineups and tactical setup.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.bundesliga.com/en/bundesliga. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05 - Halftime Result" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $3K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.bundesliga.com/en/bundesliga. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 16 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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